Sunday, February 17, 2019

Why Technical Civilizations Elsewhere are Improbable

A summary of factors that make the Drake Equation seriously flawed, and the existence of extraterrestrial technical civilizations highly unlikely.

In view of the amazing number of new planets that have been discovered recently, including a ‘Super-Earth’, I have been pondering the validity of the famous Drake equation that suggests the possibility of many technical civilizations in our galaxy. I have determined that the equation is seriously flawed.

Sorry to disappoint you UFO fans, but facts are fact; as far as we know there is only one: Ours. And, it is highly improbable that ours arose at all. These are the pieces of evidence that has led me to this conclusion:

1. Life in the form of RNA prototypes, viruses, and single cell organisms are likely widespread in space due to Panspermia, and here on Earth, evidence shows that these life forms arrived and took hold almost as soon as the lava lake crust of creation solidified and cooled down a tad. Yet, it took over two billion more years for the first multi-cellular life forms to arise.

2. Even though we live in this ‘quiet’ galactic region, our outer solar system, consisting of the remnants of its formation (the Oort Cloud and Kupier Belt) is filled with millions of objects capable of cracking open our planet like an egg; all they need is a little orbital nudge from a passing black hole, rogue star, orphan planet, or glob of “Dark’ matter. It will happen, given enough time.

3. It is well-known that life on Earth, from protoplasm to humans shares two characteristics: (a) eat and be eaten, and (b) multiply like crazy to fill all available Eco-niches. In our case, it took 4.5 billion years of a stable terrestrial environment to arrive at ‘intelligent’ Humans. Because a technical civilization can only survive by squelching the forgoing tendencies, it is doubtful that such a civilization will endure for long. Look at present conditions (religious wars, nukes, bioweapons, etc.) and a rapid poisoning of the environment.

4. As we know, it is enormously expensive to engage in space travel, and to go exploring the stars will require the resources of a multi-planet solar system. While individual planets may exist in the so-called habitable zone around a given star, it had better have additional planets that are accessible to support the venture.

5. In our case, we may never sustain our level of technology for long enough to go space-faring due to impact events. There is growing evidence that our planet gets slammed by comets or meteors capable of devastating a continent, and causing massive extinctions on the rest of the surface about every 10,000 years.

6. The urge to explore outer space and try to communicate with others out there may be a unique attribute of Humans. It also may require a clear enough atmosphere to see the stars, comets, and planets, and arouse interest in the first place.

7. The fact that we have mastered the electromagnetic spectrum and still are unable to detect remotely any other technical civilization in our galaxy supports the notion that only one per galaxy exists at any given time.

8. If the instance of one per galaxy holds throughout the universe, there may be millions, but a proven method of extra-galactic communication and travel, perhaps through ‘hyperspace’, would be required to stimulate investment of time and resources in the enterprise of contact and cultural exchange in the first place.

So, the Drake equation must be refined. Once the true probabilities are confirmed, a lot of people are going to feel very foolish, and Hollywood will go broke. I feel confident that the SETI scientists will be frustrated as long as their searching is based on recieving electromagnetic radiation or coherent light. If such technical civilizations exisit, they would likely communicate by faster-than-light methods, perhaps using one of the six available dimensions proposed by Superstring M theory. Recently, the required 'Supersymmetry' required by this theory may have been detected at CERN, but the jury is still out of this one.

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15 comments on Why Technical Civilizations Elsewhere are Improbable

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By TonyBerkman on October 24, 2011 at 03:52 pm

Fascinating article and well presented. You "almost" have me convinced though my gut suggests otherwise. ;)

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By Heisenberg on October 24, 2011 at 06:50 pm

A brilliant exposition of the Drake Equation-- but perhaps a little too brilliant.

It may be that the aliens are here already and just don't want us to know it. If so, the first place they would infiltrate would be SETI to make sure they continually fail, and they would have spokesmen like Ravo trying to tell us they don't exist. What sort of name is "Ravo"anyway? Sounds like "Trump." Ravo, do you have a birth certificate . . . from this planet?

Check out the convergence of dates bewteen the Roswell Incident, the advent of fluoridation (which blinds us to their presence) , and the invention of digital switching technology now found in cell phones. Have you ever seen Michelle Bachmann use a cell phone or drink fluoridated water? Why do you think she created the Tea Party?

They may be among us right now . . Forget "Occupy Wall Street"-- their game is "Occupy Earth."

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By Ed Attanasio on October 25, 2011 at 09:35 am

Bravo Ravo! I'd love to hear your theories about 12-21-12. I already booked my vacation.

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By Epirocker on November 10, 2011 at 03:04 am

Not a bad attempt but this whole argument is fundamentally flawed on the supposition that these advanced societies and I used the word advanced vigorously, would even behave or function as ours does. You mention human beings and their flaws, if they are an advanced civilization, surely they would function much differently than ours. As you know, our technology was set back significantly by the dark ages, something these other possible civilizations didn't experience, not to mention our galaxy may very well be much younger than others. While the bombardment and citation of scientific theories and methods is nice, there are other dimensions that do not operate by the same scientific laws as our natural world does. Quantum physics is testament to that and its why scientists are starting to slowly understand it. Hell they disproved Einstein and we were banking on him. It is absolutely naiive to even start to consider we are the only technologically advanced civilization around. If it were true, what a failure we were.

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By Ravo on November 10, 2011 at 09:16 am

Thanks for reading my article everyone! In response to several comments so far, 1. I am not an alien, although my wife has her suspicions regarding this. 2. I stand by the science and facts that gave rise to my exposition. Ultimately, the matter will be resolved in favor of the aliens if, and only if incontrovertible evidence is discovered. Until then, conjecture rules, and hopefully, wishful thinking will be set aside in favor of probability and statistics.

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By tm61 on November 10, 2011 at 12:40 pm

liked your comment at the end the best Ravo, sounds like an alien name after all and I side with the lady in the bedroom while your snoorting out bugle tunes in your sleep. So I am not convinced your of this world until i get the good "thumbs up" from her telling me your just weird and certainlly human. Or maybe just maybe I am the alien and i wanted to throw you all off by commenting(would a good alien trying to hide do that ?)

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By Theresa H Hall on November 21, 2011 at 01:08 pm

What a fun article and comments. Ravo is a cool name and I'm certain we are Not Alone in the Universe.

I immediately admit that I have my theories ... but first I have a few questions:

What are we all doing on this living planet anyway?

After The Big Bang wouldn't the Earth be enough ... just to develop on her own?

Why did life begin ... creatures, dinosaurs and everything else?

What's the point?

Why are we here?

What's the point of everything you can see when you look around you?

What are we evolving into?

Wasn't the established Earth enough of a result of The Big Bang?

Why do we exist?

I know ... my questions are innocent and childlike, but inquiring minds want to know.

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By Ravo on November 21, 2011 at 03:04 pm

Good grief! I have to be careful here, Theresa, because I don't want to offend or alienate any true believers of a creator. If there was one, I would have to say that creation was an act of dealing with the boredom of being alone throughout eternity. He is us and we are him. Physicists, on the other hand such as Steven Hawking, maintain no creator is required, and they have the math to back up this assertion.

Lacking a creator, life is simply an electrochemical event with no profound meaning or purpose. Astronomers can see great clouds of Amino acids circling around the centers of distant galaxies. It is from these Amino acids that RNA, the initial building block of life arose. Random recombination of RNA gave rise to DNA, and this substance must be everywhere in this galaxy, at least. By hitching rides on meteors and comets, life spread through a process we call Panspermia.

There is a theory that humans, dinosaurs, birds, and so forth are simply vehicles or housings for our DNA-based chromosomes, and they are evolving into more and more complex forms for their own sinister purpose which they don't care to discuss with mere humans. Another viewpoint holds that the entire universe is like a giant Petri dish that hosts all the organisms of life. From this perspective, we are no more important than, say, a slime mold.

I hope this has answered most of your questions, and improved your self-esteem. I know it has improved mine just thinking about these things!

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By TonyBerkman on November 21, 2011 at 11:52 pm

We are all aliens. Don't worry about offending anyone over beliefs since the entire purpose of broo is to have a place where we can share our beliefs. We can agree to disagree though the one thing we won't do is not be frank about our beliefs. What's the point if we have to do that?

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By Theresa H Hall on November 22, 2011 at 12:33 am


I was discussing this very thing last night with my husband ... asking the same questions and such. As for me I know what I believe, plus I also believe a little of what everyone else believes. All things are possible because otherwise, what's the purpose to any of it? There's something fishy going on in the universe. Ha!

As for my self-esteem it's just marvelous. :D

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By Theresa H Hall on November 22, 2011 at 12:35 am

P.S. My husband could only repeat the same answer that just keep evolving. So ... neither of you really knows either. I just don't get the point of gigantic dinosaurs! Why!

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By Theresa H Hall on November 22, 2011 at 12:36 am

typo: that we just keep evolving ...

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By Ravo on November 22, 2011 at 09:49 am

Hi again Theresa, an interesting discussion, and I appreciate Tony's input as well. For me, my mantra in life has been, 'Question Everything!'. Belief systems of any kind require that you suspend or compromise inquiry and rational evaluation of things that are unknown or unknowable (the latter, by definition, is a result!) in favor of a blanket pronouncement that may or may not be valid.

I am completely comfortable in not knowing everything, in knowing my limitations, and recognizing that happiness is just as important as knowledge. I can be happy in my ignorance, and I trust my gut more often than my head. The nose knows! Finally, regarding dinosaurs, their huge size was a result of evolutionary survival pressures in combination with oxygen-rich warm air and extremely lush vegetation. They were walking stomachs just like sharks are swimming stomachs. They grew to match the available food supply.

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By XX_BenDover_63XX on February 23, 2012 at 08:59 pm

Very clever except for the fact that you couldn't be more wrong and i am now fairly sure that you sir should cut out your appendix.

Good day

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By Ravo on February 24, 2012 at 12:58 pm

Wow!, what a brilliant and rational response to the article, Bend Over. Now, relax and drink the Kool Aid.....

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