Cam Newton of course. There is no doubt that Newton will win the trophy. As soon as the NCAA decided to say he had not violated the rules, he was absolutely going to be the winner and everyone knew it. Tonight's ceremony is merely a formality.
Not everyone agrees that Newton should win. There are some Heisman voters who did not vote for him, but not enough to change the outcome. Those who did vote for him fall into two categories. Those who say that because the NCAA did not rule him ineligible, he gets their first place vote based on his stats. They don't say that they are voting for him because they believe him innocent exactly, just that the NCAA didn't say he was guilty so they vote for him. The other category are those who have decided that all of the NCAA violation drama has nothing to do with him and therefore, shouldn't even be a consideration in the voting. They award their vote to him as if he had nothing following him around that taints him at all.
If I had a vote I would be in the first category. I would vote for Newton, not because I think he's innocent, but because he wasn't found ineligible. Slicing hairs? Probably. But it is what it is. The NCAA made the decision that he was eligible and that is something that they will have to deal with at some point. I do think that if you take the rules as written, they say if the athlete AND/OR family member violates the rules, the athlete is ineligible. That's not what happened with Newton though, at least not yet. Do I think it will come back to visit the NCAA down the road like the Reggie Bush drama did - yes I do, but it could be years from now.
For tonight though, Cam Newton will win the Heisman. There will be those who think he absolutely shouldn't even be considered. There will be those like me who think he was ruled eligible therefore he is eligible to be there. Then, there will be those who will believe that none of the rules drama means anything at all. Regardless, Newton will win the award - of that you can be certain.