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Jonny Carson made a joke once when he said, “Things are looking up, the mud slides are putting out the forest fires.” For some folks living in California this hits a little too close to home. If over the last few months, the state hasn’t had its share of problems, with the financial crises. Now they have to worry about earthquakes.
Not that earthquakes are anything new to the natives, what makes this different is the timing. Says the (SCEC) Southern California Earthquake Center in cooperation with U.S Geological Survey, California Geological Survey, and the California earthquake Authority which have concluded after much study that in the new forecast, California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 30 years. The likelihood of a more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%. Such a quake is more likely to occur in the southern half of the state than in the northern half. This information has been released in the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) report put out by the group in 2007. (Center)
This report went on to say that the probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous estimates.
The greater the ability of groups of scientist like these are in forecasting the Probability of earthquakes, the more time the authorities will have to warn people of the danger. In addition, the greater impact it will have on insurance rates and other monitory institutions. Including greater safety precautions used in building fortifications, and estimating losses. The report did go on to say that in comparison to flipping a coin or guessing the weather, the probability of a magnitude 7.5 or greater earthquake striking somewhere in California is about 2% per year. Take whatever comfort you can from that.
One important point the report did make is that California will experience earthquake ruptures of different magnitudes but not the shaking that will be caused by these quakes. This is an important distinction, because even areas with a low probability of fault rupture can experience shaking and damage from distant, powerful quakes.
This last earthquake is a sobering reminder to those living in California and other parts of the country that complacency can be deadly. As the old saying goes, “luck favors the prepared.” Having an earthquake plan is always a good idea and supplies in the event of one. The folks over at the daretoprepare.org have put together a nice site with all the information needed to pare you for, “The Big One.” "Los Angeles vs. The Big One"
Works CitedCenter, Southern California Earthquake. Southern California Earthquake Center. 2007. 20 may 2009 .
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