The outlook for public spending on all but the most important power sector infrastructure is a strong headwind, with the Saudi government undertaking fiscal consolidation as it faces up to lower oil revenues. Delays and cancellations to the most ambitious and costly projects across all areas of the power sector remain the biggest risk to our forecasts as the kingdom rationalises spending. Upside risk comes from the strategic importance being placed on gas-fired generation.
Latest Trends And Developments:
? The outlook for Saudi Arabia's economy has deteriorated as lower oil prices force the government to ramp up the pace of fiscal consolidation, as indicated by its 2016 budget. Given the power sector's reliance on government spending, this has by extension darkened our capacity and generation forecasts.
? These conditions do not mean that the government will not spend on power infrastructure as it attempts to keep pace with surging electricity demand and diversify the oil-heavy power mix so as to preserve oil for export (rather than burning it domestically). It does, however, mean that certain projects - such as the Fadhili gas project - which are crucial to the Saudi energy sector will be realised while others will be delayed or cancelled.
? We believe the more ambitious (and expensive) projects in the power sector - particularly new solar and nuclear capacity are particularly vulnerable to further delays.
? One bright spot for potential investors is that we expect a bigger focus on attempting to attract private investment into the power sector via public-private partnerships (PPPs) - in an effort to reduce the burden on the state.
? Saudi Electric Company (SEC) is expected to be debundled into separate entities in 2016, with foreign investment sought once these have been created.
Table of Contents
2. Headline Power Forecasts (2014-2020)
3. Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2015-2020)
4. Saudi Arabia Power Forecast Scenario
5. Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
6. Electricity Consumption
7. Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019)
8. Transmission & Distribution
9. Saudi Arabia Power Projects Database
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